Track record
Did HedgePredict call it right before the event? Every Wager and Lean made before a game starts is logged the moment it appears, at the price showing then, and graded when the market resolves. Losses stay on the page.
If you'd followed every…
$1 on each call, at the price when HedgePredict made it. Calls made before the game only. Early days: 39 calls have resolved, too few to judge yet.
The details
Early days. 39 calls have resolved so far. That is too few to judge the model either way, so read this as a running log, not a result. It will mean something at around 50.
- Calls logged
- 109 since Oct 3
- Resolved
- 39 19 won · 20 lost
- Hit rate
- 49% needs 44% to break even
- Return per $1
- +$0.14 flat $1 on every call
Running profit
A flat $1 on every resolved call, added up in the order the calls were made.
Read this with care. The two biggest wins (Buccaneers at 20¢ and Ravens at 38¢) brought in +$5.57 between them. Without those two results the total would be −$0.25. A total that depends this much on two results hasn't proved anything yet.
Each call's result
One bar per resolved call, in the order they were made. A win pays more the cheaper the side was, so a few tall bars can outweigh several losses.
Won Lost
Hit rate by price paid
A side bought at 30¢ only has to win about 30% of the time to break even. If the bar reaches past the marker, calls at that price have been winning more often than they needed to.
Hit rate Break-even (average price paid)
By call
A Wager is our strongest call. A Lean is a mild tilt.
| Logged | Resolved | Won · lost | Hit rate | Break-even | Return per $1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wager | 23 | 8 | 4 · 4 | 50% | 47% | +$0.03 |
| Lean | 86 | 31 | 15 · 16 | 48% | 43% | +$0.16 |
By how sure we were
If the model is any good, the calls it was surer about should do better.
| Logged | Resolved | Won · lost | Hit rate | Break-even | Return per $1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35% sure | 56 | 21 | 12 · 9 | 57% | 45% | +$0.39 |
| 35 to 50% sure | 30 | 10 | 3 · 7 | 30% | 40% | −$0.31 |
| 50% sure or more | 23 | 8 | 4 · 4 | 50% | 47% | +$0.03 |
By kind of market
Games resolve in hours. Futures and elections can stay open for months, so few of those have been graded yet.
| Logged | Resolved | Won · lost | Hit rate | Break-even | Return per $1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games, called before kickoff | 27 | 27 | 15 · 12 | 56% | 43% | +$0.35 |
| Futures, elections and other | 82 | 12 | 4 · 8 | 33% | 47% | −$0.35 |
In-game calls not part of the record
HedgePredict also makes calls while a game is being played. Prices swing hard mid-game, a team at 5¢ can be a "call", and the model can end up on both teams in the same game. That says little about whether it read the market right beforehand, so these are kept here and counted nowhere above.
| Logged | Resolved | Won · lost | Hit rate | Break-even | Return per $1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All in-game calls | 101 | 101 | 49 · 52 | 49% | 45% | +$0.27 |
| Wager | 21 | 21 | 13 · 8 | 62% | 39% | +$0.57 |
| Lean | 80 | 80 | 36 · 44 | 45% | 46% | +$0.20 |
Every call
Newest first. Calls marked "in-game" were made during a live game and aren't in the record. The 36 marked "earlier" were made before the switch to Polymarket US and aren't counted either.
| Logged | Market | Call | Price | How sure | Result | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | NFC South Division Winner: Carolina | Wager Yes | 48¢ | 59% | Open | — |
| Oct 18 | DAL Cowboys vs. GB Packers | Lean Cowboys | 51¢ | 25% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 18 | ARI Cardinals vs. LA Ramsin-game | Wager Cardinals | 27¢ | 69% | Won | +$2.76 |
| Oct 18 | BUF Bills vs. LV Raidersin-game | Lean Raiders | 43¢ | 34% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 18 | LA Chargers vs. KC Chiefsin-game | Lean Chargers | 25¢ | 46% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 18 | PIT Steelers vs. TB Buccaneersin-game | Lean Steelers | 45¢ | 34% | Won | +$1.20 |
| Oct 18 | NO Saints vs. NY Giantsin-game | Lean Saints | 54¢ | 29% | Won | +$0.86 |
| Oct 18 | BAL Ravens vs. CLE Brownsin-game | Lean Ravens | 78¢ | 27% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 18 | HOU Texans vs. JAC Jaguars | Lean Texans | 43¢ | 29% | Won | +$1.31 |
| Oct 18 | Nebraska vs. Oregonin-game | Wager Cornhuskers | 46¢ | 52% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 18 | Nebraska vs. Oregonin-game | Lean Cornhuskers | 37¢ | 39% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 17 | Florida State vs. Miami (FL)in-game | Wager Seminoles | 32¢ | 66% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 17 | 2027 College Football National Championship Winner: Ohio St. | Wager Yes | 26¢ | 51% | Open | — |
| Oct 17 | Notre Dame vs. BYUin-game | Lean Fighting Irish | 46¢ | 45% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 17 | Notre Dame vs. BYUin-game | Lean Cougars | 33¢ | 48% | Won | +$2.01 |
| Oct 17 | North Carolina vs. Dukein-game | Lean Tar Heels | 52¢ | 41% | Won | +$0.93 |
| Oct 17 | Alabama vs. Tennesseein-game | Lean Volunteers | 47¢ | 35% | Won | +$1.14 |
| Oct 17 | Game 4: TB Rays vs. CLE Guardians | Lean Cleveland Guardians | 50¢ | 26% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 16 | Memphis vs. Tulanein-game | Lean Green Wave | 51¢ | 31% | Won | +$0.95 |
| Oct 16 | Memphis vs. Tulanein-game | Lean Tigers | 75¢ | 30% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 16 | Washington vs. Purdue | Lean Huskies | 40¢ | 32% | Won | +$1.48 |
| Oct 16 | Ohio State vs. Indiana | Lean Buckeyes | 60¢ | 25% | Won | +$0.66 |
| Oct 16 | UEFA Champions League Winner: FC Barcelona | Lean Yes | 31¢ | 34% | Open | — |
| Oct 16 | Major League Soccer Champion: Inter Miami CF | Lean No | 86¢ | 28% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | NFC North Division Winner: Minnesota | Wager Yes | 45¢ | 53% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | Chris Olave Regular Season Receiving TDs: 3.5+ Receiving TDs | Lean No | 41¢ | 35% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | AFC Champion: Buffalo | Lean Yes | 21¢ | 30% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | East Carolina vs. UABin-game | Lean Blazers | 42¢ | 34% | Won | +$1.40 |
| Oct 15 | Game 4: MIL Brewers vs. LA Dodgersin-game | Lean Milwaukee Brewers | 64¢ | 32% | Won | +$0.56 |
| Oct 15 | Game 4: MIL Brewers vs. LA Dodgersin-game | Wager Milwaukee Brewers | 48¢ | 71% | Won | +$1.07 |
| Oct 15 | SEA Seahawks vs. DEN Broncosin-game | Lean Seahawks | 45¢ | 29% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 15 | Game 3: TB Rays vs. CLE Guardiansin-game | Lean Tampa Bay Rays | 54¢ | 29% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 15 | 2027 College Football National Championship Winner: Oregon | Lean No | 16¢ | 32% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | Men's Pro Tennis No. 1 on Dec 31, 2026: Jannik Sinner | Wager Yes | 9¢ | 50% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | 2027 College Football National Championship Winner: USC | Lean No | 19¢ | 37% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | Men's Pro Tennis No. 1 on Dec 31, 2026: Jannik Sinner | Lean Yes | 15¢ | 48% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | NFC North Division Winner: Minnesota | Lean Yes | 45¢ | 41% | Open | — |
| Oct 15 | Major League Soccer Champion: Nashville SC | Lean Yes | 22¢ | 36% | Open | — |
| Oct 14 | Kennesaw State vs. Missouri Statein-game | Lean Owls | 61¢ | 28% | Lost | −$1.00 |
| Oct 14 | Game 3: MIL Brewers vs. LA Dodgersin-game | Lean Milwaukee Brewers | 59¢ | 29% | Won | +$0.69 |
How this is kept
- A call is logged once, the first time it shows on the board, with the price of the side we called at that moment. It is never edited afterward.
- The record counts calls made before a game started, and calls on markets that aren't games. A call first made after kickoff goes in the in-game section instead.
- No call is logged after its market has ended.
- Profit assumes $1 on the called side at the logged price: a win pays $1 a share, a loss is the full $1. Fees and price slippage are not included.
- A market that settles with no clear winner is marked void and counts as zero.
- The hit rate means little on its own. A side bought at 70¢ has to win about 70% of the time just to break even, which is why the break-even rate sits next to it.
Past results don't predict future ones. This is decision support, not financial advice, and HedgePredict never places trades. Only risk what you can afford to lose.